International Desk:
Following the killing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Chief General Hossein Salami in an Israeli airstrike on Tehran, global oil markets have witnessed significant volatility. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices in the international market have surged by $5 to $7 per barrel.
Analysts warn that if the incident escalates tension in the Strait of Hormuz, there could be a severe disruption in oil supply. The strait accounts for nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil exports. Iran has frequently threatened to block this vital maritime passage in the past, and following the direct assassination of the IRGC chief, fears are mounting that this time the threat may become reality.
The nations most at risk are in Asia and Europe, which rely heavily on oil imports from the Middle East. Any disruption in supply could not only drive up oil prices further but also increase transport and production costs, thereby intensifying global inflation concerns.
Meanwhile, alternative suppliers like the United States, Canada, Brazil, and the North Sea region are likely to come under pressure to fill the gap. However, experts believe these regions lack the immediate capacity to ramp up production, making market stabilization increasingly difficult.
Already, the global stock markets have begun to reflect the tension. Major stock exchanges in Europe and Asia have experienced significant declines. Energy-dependent industries and the transport sector are among the hardest hit.
Experts caution that the Iran-Israel conflict is no longer confined to military boundaries—it now threatens to destabilize the global economy. If Iran initiates military maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz, or if its regional allies such as the Houthis or Hezbollah launch attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia or Iraq, the situation could spiral further out of control.
The United Nations, European Union, and OPEC member countries have called for de-escalation. However, there is widespread skepticism about the effectiveness of these appeals under the current volatile circumstances.
Amid such uncertainty, analysts suggest that investors consider shifting towards gold and other stable assets. While the surge in oil prices may lead to short-term declines in stock markets, certain investments in the energy sector could prove profitable in the long run.
Potential Impact on Bangladesh’s Economy
The shockwaves from this crisis are expected to hit Bangladesh quickly. According to experts, a rise in global fuel prices will increase domestic transportation costs, putting additional pressure on inflation.
Moreover, Bangladesh’s reliance on imported crude oil for electricity generation could cause stress on the power sector as well, leading to possible load-shedding or higher production costs.
