From Kamrul Islam, Chattogram: The global commercial shipping industry is undergoing a historic transformation. In 2025 alone, ships equivalent to at least 4 million gross tonnage (GT) are expected to be scrapped. Industry experts anticipate an even larger wave in 2026, driven by stricter environmental regulations and a market shift toward newer vessels.
Wave of Scrap: 2025 in Numbers
According to estimates by BIMCO, a leading maritime trade and shipping analysis organization, commercial vessels totaling approximately 3.8 to 4.2 million GT may be dismantled in 2025 at ports across the world. This marks a significant increase compared to previous years. With more new ships entering the market, the demand for older vessels is declining, prompting many shipowners to opt for early scrapping.
Analysts point out that three South Asian countries—India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan—collectively handle around 85 percent of the world’s ship scrapping. In Bangladesh, nearly a hundred shipbreaking yards are concentrated along the coast of Sitakunda and Bhatiari in Chattogram.
2026 Could See Even Higher Scrapping Numbers
The trend is expected to accelerate further in 2026. A large number of aging vessels, including container ships, car carriers, and LNG tankers, are nearing or crossing the 20-year mark. Projections suggest that vessels equivalent to 4 to 5 million GT may be scrapped in 2026. Major shipping companies are already preparing for this transition, aligning their fleet management with the Hong Kong Convention on environmentally safe ship recycling, which comes into effect from June 2025.
Current Active Fleet Overview
As of the last quarter of 2024, the global commercial shipping fleet comprises approximately 106,000 active units. Among them, bulk carriers account for about 13,000, oil tankers around 12,000, and container vessels roughly 6,000. The total deadweight tonnage (DWT) of the global fleet stands close to 2.4 billion.
In 2025 alone, more than 500 new bulk carriers are expected to join the market. Experts believe that rising maintenance costs, insurance premiums, and maritime safety regulations will leave shipowners with little choice but to scrap older ships.
What’s the Price per Ton?
In South Asia, the current average price of scrap ships ranges from 500 to 580 US dollars per ton, depending on the country. In Bangladesh, prices are reportedly reaching up to 550 dollars per ton in some cases. For a ship weighing around 15,000 tons, the scrap value could yield anywhere from 8 to 10 million US dollars.
Environmental and Safety Factors
Under the Hong Kong Convention, from June 26, 2025, strict standards for environmental and worker safety must be followed in ship recycling operations. This is expected to reduce hazardous and unregulated scrapping practices and encourage long-term sustainable management.
Final Words
A quiet revolution is sweeping through the global shipping industry. While high-tech, efficient ships are taking over the seas, older vessels are headed for the scrapyard. The years 2025 and 2026 are poised to become pivotal in this transition. The future of global shipping will be shaped by a blend of environmental responsibility, economic logic, and safety compliance.
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